Source-linked probability guides, measurement workflows, and correction histories for LootCalc tools.
Check fixed-trial, union, expected-value, and guarantee boundaries before substituting a game rate.
Drop-rate mathematicsSeparate a drought probability under a known rate from an interval estimate based on observed successes.
Binomial sampling guideRecord the source, version, complete timer, user-entered values, exclusions, and shareable state.
Getting-started workflowThese retained guides answer distinct questions instead of repeating the same formulas under different titles.
Find versioned source notes, user-input workflows, and model limits for Apex Legends, Elden Ring, Minecraft, Destiny 2, OSRS, WoW, Diablo 4, Path of Exile, Warframe, and more.
Topics
Probability models, expected value, complete-cycle timing, source boundaries, input validation, and calculator corrections.
Published entries explain retained models, source changes, removed assumptions, and reproducible workflows.
Showing all 7 published posts
Separate documented Apex cross-progression behavior from unsupported Heirloom counter arithmetic, and preserve pack evidence without adding platform estimates.
EA's disclosed Apex Heirloom Shards minimum rate, eligible-pack guarantee, exclusions, and cumulative lower-bound estimate—without invented modifiers.
Compare Diablo 4 Helltide planning and Path of Exile map accounting without invented drop rates, stale prices, or unsupported cross-game rankings.
Separate fixed-rate drought probability from estimating an unknown rate, choose an interval method, and avoid inferring a game change from one sample.
A source-linked guide to fixed independent trials, cumulative probability, binomial outcomes, unions, expected value, guarantees, and model limits.
Learn when complement probability is valid, when a stateful guarantee breaks fixed-rate independence, and how to audit conditional game rules.
Calculate gross and net expected value, separate EV from batch accounting, and define a complete time boundary without hidden price or route assumptions.
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