EV vs GPH Guide for Loot Farming: Optimize Route, Travel, and Variance

EV vs GPH in Loot Farming — Definitions, math & mistakes to avoid

What EV (expected value) means in drop math

EV per chest/run is the expectation of value you receive on each attempt. For a chest or run with multiple drop lines, EV is the sum of each outcome's value × probability. If a chest contains mutually-exclusive outcomes, simply add each line's value × p.

• EV_chest = Σ(value_i × p_i)
• Extend the same idea to runs and multi-step activities.

What GPH (gold per hour) measures in practice

Runs/hour = 3600 / time_per_run_seconds
GPH = EV_per_run × Runs/hour  (minus costs if any)

Key mistake: upgrading to a "juiced" route (higher EV/chest) while travel seconds increase. Your attempts/hour plunges and GPH falls even though per-chest EV climbed.

The EV vs GPH trade-off you must model

• Flat EV/chest but higher travel → GPH decreases.
• Lower EV/chest but faster chaining → GPH often increases.
• High-spike outcomes widen hour-to-hour variance; "good" routes can feel bad short-term.

EV per chest vs gold per hour calculator

Convert per-chest EV into per-hour reality with our calculators: Diablo 4 Helltide / WoW Delves / PoE Currency & Profit.

Rule: EV/chest is wrong when travel dominates

If travel seconds per chest > 30–35s, GPH usually prefers simpler, faster loops.

Quick formula snippet

GPH ≈ min(chests/hour by resource, chests/hour by travel) × EV/chest

Travel Seconds, Route Density & Break-Even Chest Mix

The travel-time limiter

Once travel seconds per chest rises, your runs/hour drops hyper-sensitively. A mere +5s can slash hourly profit by ~8–12% depending on base speed.

Chest mix: Mystery vs Regular (or Tier choices)

Different chest types carry different EV and cost. At fast travel, cheaper/closer targets dominate. As travel slows, higher-EV targets catch up. Use the Helltide calculator's Mix — Mystery % slider to find the cross-over.

Map density & reset logic

Routes with consistent cluster density (few detours, predictable respawns) keep travel variance low, stabilizing your GPH. If density collapses (lag, event churn), reset the instance or swap route archetype.

Break-even seconds per chest (finger-in-the-air guide)

• ≤25s → prefer close Regular/lower tier if EV gap is small.
• ~30s → mixes often tie; check weighted cost.
• ≥35s → higher-EV or Mystery-leaning paths start to win.

Weighted cost per chest (cinders, keys, maps)

Normalize EV by cost and income rate:

Weighted cost = Cost_Mystery × Mix + Cost_Regular × (1 − Mix)

+5s travel penalty (rule of thumb)

Each +5s typically cuts EV/hour by ~8–12% depending on your base travel speed.

When to favor higher tier/Mystery

Switch when the EV/chest gain outpaces the travel penalty. Otherwise prioritize attempts/hour.

See it, don't guess

Visualize on Helltide and PoE Currency & Profit. Glossary entries: variance, dry streak.

Variance, Union Probability (P(any)), and Dry Streaks

Why variance makes "good routes feel bad"

High-spike outcomes increase hour-to-hour dispersion. You can post negative sessions on a positive-EV route. Plan for it rather than over-reacting to short samples.

Union probability — from one try to "at least once in n tries"

If drop rate = p, then  P(any in n tries) = 1 − (1 − p)^n

Maximizing n per hour (attempts/hour) rockets your chance to hit "any" success inside a session. That's another reason fast routes outperform "big chest" routes.

Confidence and expectation planning

• Small samples → wider confidence intervals; don't conclude too fast.
• For very rare targets, evaluate P(any across days), not only per session.

Practical thresholds for "feels good" sessions

• Target ≥100 attempts for mid-rarity before judging a route.
• For very rare drops, collect across multiple days; keep attempts/hour high.

Protecting your morale (and wallet)

• Pre-commit a fixed time window; don't chase losses during a dry spell.
• If travel rises (lag, density gone), reset or pick a different archetype.

Dry streak expectation

The expected longest dry streak grows with attempts; drying out for a while is statistically normal.

Bankroll for juiced routes

Routes with consumable costs need buffer gold; otherwise variance forces you into sub-optimal pivots.

Two sanity checks

• If GPH drops when you juice, your travel/time rose too much.
• If morale tanks, increase attempts/hour or mix chest types.

Further reading

EV vs GPH: Optimize Time · Delves Weekly Vault thresholds · Glossary

Worked Examples & Hands-On Checklist

Example A — Fast-Chain route (low travel, modest EV/chest)

Inputs: travel = 25s, steady resource/hour, modest EV/chest. Outcome: chests/hour is very high; EV/hour beats slower routes despite smaller per-chest EV. Use this when starting out, playing in a party, or if density is volatile.

Example B — Safe-Cluster route (higher EV/chest, longer travel)

Inputs: travel = 35–40s, EV/chest notably higher, mix tilted to higher-tier/Mystery. It ties or wins only if the EV/chest gain outpaces the travel penalty. Favor when density is guaranteed and variance is acceptable to you.

Example C — Break-even switch logic

1. Time EV/hour on both routes for 10–15 minutes each.
2. If Fast-Chain ≥ Safe-Cluster → stay fast.
3. If not, raise Mystery % gradually and re-test.

Quick checklist before you reroute

• Travel seconds under control?
• Mix tuned near break-even?
• Costs normalized by your currency/hour?
• Variance acceptable for your session length?

Export, share, and reset defaults (collaboration)

All LootCalc calculators support Copy Link, Export CSV, and Reset Defaults so teammates can reproduce your setup: Helltide, WoW Delves, PoE Currency & Profit.

FAQ — EV vs GPH optimization, answered