The official version boundary
Bandai Namco's official update notes identify both an app version and a regulation version. For example, the August 2025 note lists 1.16.1 for both. This is useful provenance: a rate derived from regulation data must remain attached to that revision. The note does not publish a reusable item drop table, base-rate catalog, or mapping from a displayed Discovery value to final item probability.
Bandai Namco: Patch Notes 1.16.1
Official Elden Ring patch-note index
Enter an effective per-check chance
The probability input should describe one eligible loot check under the exact setup written beside it. If you begin with a base rate and a modifier, the source must establish both the modifier rule and its scope. Otherwise derive nothing: enter a rate from a traceable current data source or use a plainly labeled what-if scenario. The calculator does not choose between the mutually contradictory linear and logarithmic formulas that appeared in the old site; both were removed.
From checks to complete cycles
For per-check chance p and m equivalent independent checks in one route cycle, the chance of at least one drop in the cycle is 1 - (1-p)^m. Across n cycles, the chance of at least one is 1 - (1-p)^(m×n). Expected drop events per cycle are m×p. These formulas require every included check to use the same event definition and effective probability.
Time the complete repeatable route
Begin at a reproducible reset point and stop when the next equivalent cycle can begin. Include travel, combat, loot animation, collection, return, loading, healing or resource recovery, and any reset action. Expected drops per hour combine that measured duration with the input probability; they do not establish a universal best enemy, build, grace route, or item farm.
Compare setups without inventing a Discovery curve
Save one URL for each setup using probabilities derived by the same documented method. Keep the exact displayed stat, equipment, consumable state, enemy variant, regulation, platform, and data revision in the notes. The related evidence-first Elden Ring rate guide provides a blank review log and comparison checklist.
How Item Discovery works
The Elden Ring wiki.gg community reference records a base displayed Discovery value of 100 and says each Arcane point gained while leveling adds 1 to that display. Those are attributed community statements, not an official probability table or a rule silently implemented by LootCalc (Discovery, Elden Ring wiki.gg).
The same community wiki page publishes a community-derived formula relating an item's base drop chance to the chance at a given Discovery value. This is an attribution to what that page records, not an official FromSoftware formula or a transform used by this calculator. The wiki's expression includes rounding steps; as a mathematical approximation for small base rates, it is close to base chance × (Discovery ÷ 100). Under that approximation, Discovery 100 is close to the base rate and Discovery 200 is close to twice the base rate. The calculator still asks for one sourced effective per-check probability because the community formula and its rounding behavior are version-specific claims, not values LootCalc can safely infer from a displayed stat.
Documented ways to raise Discovery
The cited community references record three ways the displayed value can be higher:
- Arcane. Each point of Arcane adds 1 Discovery on top of the base 100, so a character with 30 Arcane and no other modifiers sits at 130 (Discovery, Elden Ring wiki.gg).
- Silver Scarab. The community page records 75 additional Discovery while the talisman is equipped (Silver Scarab, Elden Ring wiki.gg).
- Silver-Pickled Fowl Foot. Community references record two separate values for this consumable: 50 additional Discovery and a 3-minute duration (numeric effect and duration, Game8 community guide; qualitative item reference, Elden Ring wiki.gg).
These modifiers raise the same displayed stat, so the most reliable procedure is not to compute the total yourself: equip or consume what you plan to farm with, open the status screen, and record the Discovery number the game actually shows next to the scenario you save here. That recorded value is provenance for the effective rate you enter; it is not something the calculator converts into a probability.
When the independent-check model fits a farm
This calculator assumes each eligible kill repeats the same independent loot check. That is a model boundary, not a claim that every Elden Ring reward works this way. Guaranteed, one-time, conditional, or changing-state rewards need a different model. When a fixed independent rate is appropriate, the useful planning quantity is cumulative probability: for per-kill chance p, the chance of at least one drop within n kills is 1 - (1-p)^n.
As a purely hypothetical worked example — this is an illustration of the math, not a claim about any specific enemy — suppose your effective per-kill chance were 2%. The chance of at least one drop within 35 kills is 1 - 0.98^35 ≈ 50.7%. Reaching a 90% cumulative chance takes about 114 kills (1 - 0.98^114 ≈ 90.0%), and the expected number of kills per drop is 1 ÷ 0.02 = 50. Notice the asymmetry: the second half of the certainty costs far more kills than the first half, and no finite number of kills reaches 100%. Under this fixed-rate model, a long dry streak by itself is not evidence that the rate changed.
The same math explains why checking a community-documented rate against your own play is harder than it looks. After n kills at true rate p, your observed frequency has a standard error of √(p(1-p)/n). At the hypothetical 2% rate, even 500 kills leaves a standard error of about 0.6 percentage points — nearly a third of the rate itself — so a short session genuinely cannot distinguish 1.5% from 2.5%. Log your kill counts before drawing conclusions, and treat small-sample anecdotes (including your own) as noise.
Common farming mistakes
- Reading Discovery as a percentage. Discovery 150 does not mean a 150% or even a 1.5% drop chance. In the cited community model it is an index around a base of 100, not a probability shown as a percentage.
- Multiplying boosts against each other. The documented values above modify one shared displayed stat. Do not invent separate multiplicative drop-rate buffs from those point values; record the single Discovery number shown for the setup and source the effective probability independently.
- Expecting a guarantee at the expected value. At a hypothetical 2% rate, 50 kills is the long-run average per drop, yet the chance of still having nothing after 50 kills is
0.98^50 ≈ 36%. Averages are not deadlines. - Mixing setups inside one sample. If the fowl foot expires mid-session or you swap talismans, the recorded setup has changed. Do not assume the old effective rate still applies; save a separate scenario URL unless your source establishes that the probability is unchanged.
- Carrying rates across patches. A rate someone derived under one regulation version is a claim about that version only. Re-verify after any update before reusing the number.
- Comparing sessions run at different Discovery values. Drops per hour measured at Discovery 110 and drops per hour measured at Discovery 230 come from different recorded setups. Do not pool them as one sample without a source-backed model; compare saved scenarios instead of raw tallies.
What this page does not claim
The official patch note cited here establishes a version boundary; it does not publish an enemy drop table or a Discovery-to-probability transform. The Discovery values above are attributed to the named community references, not presented as an official rate catalog. If you use a datamined or community-documented item rate, label that source and its regulation instead of treating it as timeless. This calculator ships no hidden enemy preset: it computes cumulative probability, expected drops, and route time from the effective rate you enter. If sources disagree, resolve the conflict against the current version before combining them.