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LootCalc

Elden Ring Drop Rate & Item Discovery Guide

A rate has value only when another person can identify the same regulation, source, item, enemy, eligibility rule, setup, and route boundary. This workflow keeps those inputs attached and refuses to infer an undocumented Discovery transform.

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1. Record both app and regulation version

Official Bandai Namco patch notes display app and regulation numbers. The 1.16.1 note lists both explicitly, and the official news index records later patch notes. Read the title-screen values before using extracted regulation data or a rate published for a particular revision.

Bandai Namco: Patch Notes 1.16.1
Official Elden Ring news and patch notes

2. Define one eligible loot event

Record the exact boundary before selecting a probability:

3. Grade the rate source

A decimal beside an item name is not enough. Vague attribution to a wiki, subreddit, or community test cannot establish selection rules, modifiers, sample quality, or the current regulation.

4. Treat Discovery and equipment as provenance until sourced

Record the displayed Discovery value, Arcane, equipment, consumables, and other relevant conditions. Apply a base-to-effective transform only when the exact rule and scope are supported for the regulation being modeled. The former LootCalc pages taught mutually incompatible linear and logarithmic rules, so both were removed. The current tool accepts the final effective chance and does not calculate build stats.

5. Count equivalent checks in the route

A route with m equivalent independent checks of probability p has at-least-one chance1 - (1-p)^m per complete loop. Do not combine enemies with different tables, variants, or modifier eligibility under one m. Model them separately or derive the non-identical product explicitly.

6. Measure the whole loop

Start at the reset point and end when the next comparable loop can begin. Include travel, target acquisition, combat, loot animation, pickup, return, loading, healing, buffs, consumable maintenance, and failed executions. Keep raw timings and use a median for a typical comparison; hardware and build changes can alter time without changing the loot probability.

7. Compare setups with the same evidence standard

Save one calculator URL per setup. Use the same item event, source quality, regulation, and loop boundary. Compare expected drops per hour and cumulative plan probability together: one describes the long-run rate, while the other exposes the risk of a dry plan. Neither guarantees the next result or justifies a universal build recommendation.

8. Keep a real audit log

verified_on,platform,app_version,regulation_version,data_source,item,enemy_or_source,setup,eligible_checks,successful_drops,full_cycle_seconds,notes
YYYY-MM-DD,platform,version,version,file/commit/URL,item definition,source definition,displayed stats and equipment,0,0,0,record actual evidence

This is an empty schema, not a claim that LootCalc performed the listed kills. Do not add invented rows or use a result as proof of the probability that produced it.

Use the calculator

Enter the versioned effective chance and route measurements in the Elden Ring Effective Drop-Rate Scenario Calculator, then store its URL with the source note.

Correction history

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