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RAID Mercy Schedule Evidence Guide

A Shard name is not a complete probability model. Capture the current Summoning Portal rate, exact target rarity, applicable Mercy wording, and the evidence behind your failure count before calculating a scenario.

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1. Capture the current Summoning Portal information

Plarium's Summon FAQ directs players to Summoning Portal > i for current drop rates. Record the game version, date, Shard type, target rarity, base or event rate shown, and a screenshot or exact transcription. Do not substitute a cached guide, package description, or another Shard's panel.

2. Define the event before copying a percentage

“Summon a Champion,” “summon a Legendary,” and “summon this named Champion” are different events. The calculator models a target rarity from one eligible Shard type. A named-Champion pool boost is conditional on first landing the rarity and must not be relabeled as the next-Shard Legendary rate.

3. Keep Shard and rarity counters separate

The official Mercy System page says counters are tracked individually for each Shard type. It also says Ancient and Void Epic and Legendary counters are independent: one rarity result does not necessarily reset the other rarity counter. Your log key therefore needs both shard_type and target_rarity.

4. Treat the current failure count as uncertain unless logged

Plarium says the Mercy counter is internal and not displayed in game. LootCalc cannot retrieve it. Reconstruct consecutive eligible failures only from a maintained log or available history, and label the count estimated when records are incomplete. Never turn a lifetime Shard total into “current pity.”

5. Record the exact reset result

Plarium states that summoning the matching Epic or Legendary resets that rarity's counter for that Shard type and restores its default chance. End the old scenario at that result. Preserve the result and start a new row; editing the old count backward destroys the audit trail.

6. Translate additive increases correctly

The support page says Mercy increases are additive, not multiplicative. A 2-percentage-point increase applied to 8% produces 10%. If F is the entered number of flat failures, the first increase applies on the next eligible summon after those F failures—not on the Fth summon itself.

7. Audit the changing conditional schedule

Let b be the base percentage, d the additive percentage-point step, c the current failure count, and i a future summon numbered from one. The entered rate ismin(100%, b + max(0, c + i − F) × d). The probability of no target through the modeled plan is the product of each conditional miss probability. Its complement is the chance of at least one target.

8. Call 100% a derived input boundary, not a separate preset

A positive additive schedule can mathematically reach 100%. The calculator reports the first such summon implied by the entered values. That does not prove the values match the live game and does not authorize a separate forced-cap preset. A logged failure count beyond the derived 100% step is a contradiction to reconcile, not a new cycle to infer with modulo.

9. Preserve temporary-event rules independently

Plarium's FAQ distinguishes Guaranteed Champion and Extra Legendary Events. Eligibility can depend on the Shard named in the live event and whether the result occurs while it is active. The FAQ also says an Extra Legendary bonus does not reset Mercy. Save the event wording beside the scenario; do not use a generic event toggle that changes unrelated rates or counters.

10. Keep Shard inventory separate from price

Record eligible Shards already owned and the number planned. The planner reports only a count shortfall or remainder. Pack prices, gem conversions, Champion valuations, personal budget targets, and “best event” advice change over time and do not belong in a probability evidence model.

11. Maintain an append-only state log

verified_on,game_version,shard_type,target_rarity,portal_capture,displayed_rate_percent,flat_failures_before_increase,additive_points,current_failure_basis,current_failures,planned_summons,owned_eligible_shards,event_name,event_terms,actual_result,new_failure_count,share_url,notes
YYYY-MM-DD,version,type,rarity,path or URL,0,0,0,log or estimate,0,0,0,none,none,result,0,URL,record observations only

This is an empty schema, not a collected summon dataset. Do not add illustrative results and present them as account observations. Keep the Portal capture and share URL so another reader can reproduce exactly what the calculator received.

12. Review the output before sharing

  1. Confirm the Shard type and target rarity are exact.
  2. Confirm the percentage came from the current applicable Portal or event panel.
  3. Confirm the failure log contains only the compatible counter family.
  4. Confirm additive points were not entered as a multiplier.
  5. Confirm any derived 100% step follows from the inputs rather than a separate claim.
  6. Label uncertain history, temporary event terms, and scenario assumptions visibly.

Run the auditable scenario

Open the RAID Mercy Schedule & Shard Planner and enter the captured values. Save a new share URL after a target result or event change; do not overwrite the prior state and imply the new output was known earlier.

Correction history

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