1. Define the cycle you are tracking
Start with the current cycle after Bonus Heirloom Shards were awarded by an eligible Apex Pack. If you cannot establish the boundary, mark the starting count as uncertain instead of treating a lifetime total as exact. LootCalc cannot query EA for the hidden account counter.
2. Classify the pack, not the reward source
“Battle Pass,” “level reward,” “promotion,” and “store” describe where a reward came from; they do not by themselves prove what pack type was awarded. Record the visible pack name or screenshot first, then decide whether it matches an EA-excluded category.
| Classification | Counter treatment |
|---|---|
| Confirmed eligible Apex Pack | Add the number opened while eligible |
| Collection Event Pack | Do not add |
| Thematic Event Pack | Do not add |
| Milestone Event Pack | Do not add |
| Collection Retro Pack | Do not add |
| Pack that may provide a replacement item | Do not add |
| Unknown historical reward | Keep separate until classified |
3. Record eligibility pauses
EA says the Bonus Shards eligibility can pause when a player owns all available Base Mythic items or already holds enough Shards to obtain every unowned Base Mythic item. Packs opened during the paused period do not advance the 500-pack counter. Add a “paused” column instead of subtracting those packs from memory later.
4. Use a compact evidence log
date,source,pack_label,count,eligibility_paused,evidence,note YYYY-MM-DD,level reward,visible pack name,1,false,screenshot URL,confirmed YYYY-MM-DD,event,visible pack name,1,false,screenshot URL,excluded category YYYY-MM-DD,unknown,unknown,1,false,,do not count until classified
This is a schema, not claimed player data. Store only what you can observe and keep uncertain rows out of the confirmed count.
5. Interpret the percentage as an estimate
With EA's disclosed minimum rate, the fixed independent-rate formula gives approximately 4.40% at 100 eligible packs and 20.12% at 499. The 500th eligible pack is handled as a guarantee diagnostic, not as another point on the probability curve.
Primary sources
Use the calculator
Once you have a confirmed count, enter it in the Apex Pack Probability Calculator. Keep uncertain rows in your evidence log rather than forcing them into a precise number.