EA-rule-based calculator
Apex Pack Probability Calculator
Track the 500 eligible-pack guarantee and calculate a lower-bound cumulative estimate from EA's disclosed minimum rate. It uses that global minimum only as a lower-bound assumption and never invents account-specific modifiers.
Enter only packs that count toward EA's 500-pack guarantee. The game does not expose an official counter, so this is your own best estimate—not a value read from your EA account.
Do not include these EA-listed pack types:
Collection Event, Thematic Event, Milestone Event, Collection Retro, or packs that may provide replacement items. A reward source only adds to this count when the reward itself is an eligible Apex Pack.
380
maximum eligible packs remaining under the 500-pack rule
5.26%
Lower-bound cumulative estimate using EA's disclosed minimum rate of 0.045% per pack and a fixed independent-rate assumption. It is not an EA account prediction and does not replace the guarantee counter.
Model sources verified 2026-07-11: EA minimum global drop rates and EA Apex Legends FAQ.
What the calculation means
For fewer than 500 eligible packs, the tool evaluates 1 - (1 - p)^n, where p = 0.045% and n is your eligible-pack count. This is a lower-bound estimate under a fixed independent-rate assumption. EA does not publish a personal account prediction function, and LootCalc cannot inspect your inventory or hidden counter.
Classify the pack before counting it
A reward source is not enough to decide eligibility. Confirm that the reward itself is an eligible Apex Pack. EA explicitly excludes Collection Event, Thematic Event, Milestone Event, Collection Retro, and packs that may provide replacement items. Packs opened while the account is in an ineligible state also do not advance the guarantee counter.
Primary sources and limits
The model was source-checked on 2026-07-11. If EA changes the disclosed rate or eligibility rules, this page and the shared model must be updated together.
Related tools
FAQ
What Heirloom Shards rate does this calculator use?
It uses EA's disclosed minimum rate of 0.045% per Apex Pack. The cumulative percentage is a fixed independent-rate estimate, not a prediction read from your EA account.
Are the odds different on PC and console?
EA publishes one global Heirloom Shards rate. This calculator does not apply a platform multiplier.
Which packs do not count toward the 500-pack guarantee?
EA excludes Collection Event, Thematic Event, Milestone Event, Collection Retro, and packs that may provide replacement items.
Why does a count of 500 or more show a diagnostic?
EA says an eligible player cannot open more than 500 eligible packs without Bonus Heirloom Shards. A larger count therefore indicates that the pack classification, eligibility period, or tracked cycle needs checking.
Can LootCalc read my official pack counter?
No. Apex Legends does not expose an official account counter to this website. Your input is a personal estimate and should be treated as such.
Changelog
- 2026-07-11: Rebuilt around EA's 0.045% disclosed minimum, eligible-pack exclusions, and diagnostic state at 500.
- 2025-11-05: Initial calculator published.