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LootCalc

Current target chances in, transparent probability out

Warframe Relic Drop Calculator

Model the chance that an exact target appears among the relic rewards shown in one completion, then project an unchanged run plan. Every gameplay probability stays visible, editable, and tied to your source note.

Model one current reward scenario

Copy the target percentage for every reward entry shown in the same run. The starting four 5% values are arithmetic examples—not Warframe rates, refinement presets, or a recommendation.

Provenance only. It never selects a hidden probability table.

Use one exact reward. Different targets need separate scenarios.

Prefer the current official drop table or a dated capture of the in-game reward screen.

Count only participants whose opened item will produce a selectable reward in the same completion.

A whole-number plan using the same probability inputs on every run.

Record the exact item and refinement shown for this participant.

Copy the chance for the exact target and setup. Zero means this entry cannot reveal the target.

Record the exact item and refinement shown for this participant.

Copy the chance for the exact target and setup. Zero means this entry cannot reveal the target.

Record the exact item and refinement shown for this participant.

Copy the chance for the exact target and setup. Zero means this entry cannot reveal the target.

Record the exact item and refinement shown for this participant.

Copy the chance for the exact target and setup. Zero means this entry cannot reveal the target.

Include recruiting, loadout selection, loading, Reactant collection, mission completion, reward selection, extraction, and reset to a comparable state.

Target available this run

18.5494%

At least once in 20 runs

98.3485%

Expected target-available runs

3.71

Expected runs to first availability

5.391

Repeated-scenario thresholds

No target in the planned batch: 1.6515%

Expected minutes to first availability: 26.955

Average minutes per run: 5

Runs per hour under this boundary: 12

Runs needed to reach at-least-one probability thresholds
ThresholdRunsEstimated time
50%420 minutes
75%735 minutes
90%1260 minutes
95%1575 minutes

The run formula is 1 − ∏(1 − pᵢ). It treats the entered reveals as independent and assumes every listed reveal is available in the same reward-selection screen. Repeated-run outputs also assume the same probabilities on every run. “Expected” is a long-run average, not a guarantee or deadline.

What this calculator answers

Choose one exact reward and enter its current probability for every relic whose reward will appear in the same selection screen. The calculator answers three bounded questions: the chance the target is available in one run, the chance it appears at least once across an unchanged run plan, and the run/time thresholds for selected probability levels. It does not answer which relic is “best” or what a reward is worth.

Where the inputs come from

Digital Extremes publishes the official PC drop tables. Its Relic Hunting 101 page says each Relic has a unique reward set and recommends checking the same Relic with squadmates. The current Prime path explains that squad play lets a player choose from squadmates' rewards. Recheck the current table or in-game screen because a live-service reward set can change.

Why there is no refinement preset

A refinement label is not enough provenance for an exact target. Relics can have different reward sets, a live update can change availability, and special Relic families may follow different rules. A preset also hides whether every squad member actually brought the same Relic and refinement. One target probability per displayed relic makes mixed setups explicit and leaves no silent rarity split in the code.

The one-run formula

For entered target probabilities p₁…pₙ, the probability that none of the displayed relics reveals the target is ∏(1 − pᵢ). Its complement, 1 − ∏(1 − pᵢ), is the probability that at least one does. This requires the relic reveals to be independent. LootCalc labels that condition as an assumption; it does not claim Digital Extremes published an independence statement for this tool.

The repeated-run formula

If the one-run probability is p and all r planned runs use the same setup, the chance of at least one target-available run is 1 − (1 − p)^r. Expected target-available runs arer × p. An expectation is an average across many comparable plans, not a countdown, bad-luck protection system, or guarantee for one account.

Use one complete clock

Full batch time should include group assembly, relic selection, loading, Reactant collection, mission completion, reward selection, extraction, and reset to a comparable starting state. Omitting the slow parts makes runs per hour look better without changing the acquisition experience. When comparing two scenarios, use the same timing boundary for both.

What was removed

The former page silently selected a fixed refinement table, divided reward buckets into assumed slot counts, attached static currency values, and converted the result into a market-return estimate. It also mixed probability, trading, route speed, and refinement advice without dated primary evidence. Those outputs and the related fabricated observation log were removed rather than softened with vague sourcing language.

Record a reproducible scenario

Save the shared URL beside a screenshot or dated source. Record platform/build, exact Relic, exact refinement, exact reward, each participant's target probability, planned runs, completed runs, and full batch time. If any setup value changes, create a new scenario instead of editing the old observation.

Continue with the evidence workflow

The Warframe Relic Evidence Guide explains how to capture a source, audit the assumptions, compare plans fairly, and preserve corrections without inventing a market or route dataset.

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