Warframe Relic Drop Chance Calculator (Radiant, Flawless, Exceptional, Intact EV & Probability)

Methodology & Practical Strategy for Warframe Relic Farming (drop chance, EV & route planning)

Refinement shifts probability mass from common to rare. Because bucket shares are split among items within the bucket, the largest marginal gain comes from Radiant when you're chasing a single rare drop. The decision is not just "rare odds" though: it's time and resource efficient to refine only when the EV uplift per trace spent is positive. In organized squads, best-of-squad selection is the second multiplier. Mathematically, per-run success becomes 1 − (1 − pSingle)^{squad}. This is why a coordinated Radiant squad yields an order-of-magnitude higher probability per run than solo Intact attempts.

Planning your session is therefore a three-part optimization: (1) choose the refinement tier that maximizes EV per trace; (2) configure squad size and coordinate who brings which relic;(3) set your run target using at-least-one odds (for instance, 90% confidence). As a rule of thumb, raising rare odds from 2% to 10% cuts the required runs by ~5× for the same target confidence—before even counting squad best-of-N. Use the sections below for the exact formulas and worked examples.

Assumptions (data model & drop table conventions)

• Each relic has 6 reward candidates: 3 Common, 2 Uncommon, 1 Rare.
• Within a bucket, each item shares the bucket total evenly. For example, if Common total is 50%, each common item is 16.67%.
• Squad selection means "pick 1 from the union of all rewards shown". Outcomes are independent across players for a given run.
• Our defaults reflect widely used community splits; always verify against current relic data and override if needed.
• EV per relic is calculated from your input price for the target item (optional).

Formula & Pseudocode (probability, confidence & EV)

// Single target item probability (solo)
p_single = bucket_share_for_target / 100

// Best-of-squad per-run success (squad in [1..4])
p_run = 1 - (1 - p_single)^squad

// Probability to obtain >= 1 copy in N runs
p_at_least_one = 1 - (1 - p_run)^runs

// Expected copies in N runs
E[copies] = runs * p_run

// Expected value per relic (optional price input)
EV_per_relic = p_run * price_target

Worked Example (Radiant squad vs Intact solo)

Suppose your squad runs Radiant and chases the rare item. Defaults assign 10% to rare; because there is only one rare, p_single = 10%. With a 4-player squad, the per-run success is p_run = 1 − (1 − 0.10)^4 ≈ 34.39%. If you plan 10 runs, the odds of getting at least one copy are 1 − (1 − 0.3439)^10 ≈ 97.7%. In contrast, with Intact solo, p_single = 2%, p_run = 2%, and 1 − (0.98)^10 ≈ 18.3%. The difference is massive, which illustrates why refinement and squad coordination dominate outcome planning.

Edge Cases (what to watch for)

• If relic tables rotate mid-week, your saved link may go stale. Always validate bucket totals before long sessions.
• If your squad mixes tiers (e.g., 2 Radiant + 2 Intact), the best-of-squad math still applies but p_single differs per player; the exact per-run success becomes 1 − Π(1 − p_i).
• EV calculations assume instant sale at your price input; in practice, liquidity and taxes reduce realized gains.

Common Mistakes (and how to avoid them)

1. Chasing raw rare odds without squads. Best-of-squad is often a bigger multiplier than moving one refinement tier up.
2. Ignoring bucket split. Two uncommons share their total; if you want a specific uncommon, always use the per-item probability.
3. Over-refining without EV uplift. Spend traces where the marginal gain per trace is highest.

Warframe Radiant Relic rare drop chance & best squad size

For rare-chasing, Radiant + 4 players provides the highest per-run probability. Use the calculator to find the minimum runs for 90–95% confidence, then schedule your farming block accordingly.

Uncommon target optimization: Radiant vs Flawless vs Exceptional

Uncommons benefit from refinement too, but because there are two uncommons sharing the total, the per-item probability grows differently from rare. Test your scenario with price-sensitive EV.

Common reward consistency & time-per-run trade-off

Commons stabilize EV but rarely beat a coordinated rare plan. If your time-per-run is long, Intact farming of commons can still be EV-positive.

Warframe relic refinement traces budget planning

Budget traces by expected uplift: compute EV gain per trace between tiers and stop when marginal returns fall below your benchmark.

Confidence levels, quantiles & variance in short sessions

Variance dominates small samples. If you need high reliability, plan for higher run counts (see our variance & dry-streaks guide).

See also: Glossary: variance · quantile · Methodology (verification workflow) · EV vs GPH guide.