1. Confirm that the old progression path still exists
In February 2026, Lost Ark removed honing through lower-tier Ancient Tier 3 and below, retired the associated lower-tier materials, and made upper-tier Ancient Akkan gear the point where honing begins. Therefore a guide centered on 1302–1370, Argos 1340, Relic 1390, or “1370 to 1490” costs is historical—not a current planning tool.
Lost Ark: Guardians' Rage progression revamp
2. Capture the exact panel before calculating
- date, region, gear name, tier, and current honing stage;
- base success chance displayed before optional materials;
- combined or additional chance displayed after your chosen materials;
- currency fee and every material quantity consumed by one attempt;
- any hard boundary explicitly shown for this piece and stage.
Use the final displayed chance if the client already combines research, event support, and selected materials. Do not add a second “+10%” from memory; that can double-count an effect or reuse an obsolete item rule.
3. Keep current Tier 4 terms tied to their source
April 2026's Tier 4 Upper notes add Destined Tremor gear, a Breakthrough requirement above +20, Destiny Crystallized Destruction/Guardian Stones, Great Leapstone of Destiny, Superior Abidos Fusion Material, and Lava's Breath / Glacier's Breath rate boosters. The official article establishes those names and the +25 ceiling; it does not publish a reusable numeric probability and price table for this calculator.
Lost Ark: The Shadows Rise Tier 4 Upper notes
4. Choose a material valuation policy
“Cost” can mean cash-out gold, replacement value, or total resources consumed. Bound materials have no direct sale price but may have a replacement cost. Pick one policy, write it beside the scenario, and use one unit for every input. Auction prices are regional and time-sensitive, so the calculator deliberately does not preload them.
5. Enter a guarantee; do not derive one from a universal Artisan constant
The retired model assumed fixed 11.5%, 21.5%, or 46.5% Artisan gain per failure and used the smallest of1/p and a crude attempt cap. That is not a valid expected-value calculation: a capped random process needs a truncated probability distribution, and the correct boundary can depend on the exact current hone. Enter a guarantee attempt only when your present UI or a cited source gives you one.
6. Read the scenario math correctly
For a constant random-roll chance p, success within n attempts is1 - (1-p)^n. If attempt G is guaranteed, the chance of reaching that attempt is(1-p)^(G-1) and expected attempts are Σ(k=0…G-1)(1-p)^k. Multiplying expected attempts by one-attempt cost produces an expectation, not a promise or a budget ceiling.
7. Save an input log
date,region,gear,stage,base_rate,additional_rate,guarantee_attempt,currency_cost,material_value,source_note YYYY-MM-DD,NA East,gear name,+X→+Y,visible %,visible pp,0 or boundary,amount,amount,in-game panel or source URL
This is a blank schema, not a claimed dataset. Use the date and source note to prevent a saved scenario from becoming an undated “current rate.”
Run the scenario
Enter the captured values in the Lost Ark Honing Scenario Calculator and save its URL with your log. Compare two URLs only when they use the same valuation policy.