Why the calculator now starts with your in-game panel
A static table cannot safely stand in for the current client. Lost Ark's February 2026 progression revamp removed gear honing through lower-tier Ancient Tier 3, retired lower-tier materials, and made Akkan gear the point where honing begins. April 2026 then added Tier 4 Upper gear, new materials, and new rate boosters. Those changes make the previous 1302–1390 selector obsolete.
Sources: Lost Ark, “Guardians' Rage” progression revamp and “The Shadows Rise” Tier 4 Upper notes.
What the model actually calculates
With a constant conditional success chance p over n random attempts, cumulative success is 1 - (1 - p)^n. Without a hard boundary, expected attempts are 1 / p. If you enter a guarantee on attempt G, expected attempts become the finite sum Σ(k=0…G-1) (1-p)^k, and attempt G is displayed as your supplied 100% boundary.
This is conditional math. It does not prove that a selected boost is additive, infer current Artisan's Energy from past failures, or claim that your account is due. Read the combined chance from the game after selecting any materials whenever possible.
How to value a honing attempt
Put the mandatory currency fee in one field. Convert only the materials you choose to value into the same unit in the other field. A bound material can reasonably be valued at zero for cash-out planning or at its replacement cost for resource planning; the correct choice depends on the question you are answering. The calculator does not decide that policy for you.
Build a reproducible note
Save the gear name, stage, date, region, visible base chance, selected boost, guarantee boundary if one is explicitly shown, and per-attempt inputs. Then copy the scenario URL. The current Lost Ark honing input guide provides a blank log format and explains which older assumptions were removed.