Lost Ark Tools & Calculators — Honing Success Rates, Expected Materials & Gold Optimization
Use the Lost Ark Honing Calculator to model expected materials, gold cost, and success probability for gear upgrades from +0 to +25. This page explains the honing mechanics, artisan energy system, enhancement materials, and links to optimization guides.
Lost Ark Honing Calculator Quick Start — Success Rates & Material Costs
Start by entering your current enhancement level, target level, and gear tier (T3 1302-1370, T3 1340-1390, or T3 1390+ Relic). Adjust material prices to match your server's auction house rates. Enable Solar Blessing (+10% success rate) or Book of Coordination (+10%) to see cost-benefit analysis. Results update instantly and can be shared via URL.
Inputs & Configuration
Key inputs include current level (0-25), target level, gear tier (affects base success rates), equipment type (weapon vs armor), and market prices for destruction stones, guardian stones, leapstones, and fusion materials. Toggle enhancement materials to model scenarios with/without Solar Blessing or Solar Protection.
Outputs & Key Metrics
The calculator displays expected attempts, total gold cost, and material requirements (destruction/guardian stones, leapstones, fusion materials). A level-by-level breakdown shows base success rate, modified rate (with enhancements), average attempts per level, and cost per level. This helps you identify which levels are most expensive and plan material farming accordingly.
Shareable Configurations & URL Parameters
Your configuration is encoded in the URL, making it easy to share setups with guildmates or revisit later. Compare different enhancement strategies (e.g., weapon-first vs armor-first) by opening multiple calculator tabs with different configurations. This is particularly useful for planning alt character progression or comparing cost efficiency of reaching different item level breakpoints (1415, 1430, 1445).
Example — Weapon +15 to +20 with Solar Blessing
Upgrading a T3 relic weapon from +15 to +20 typically requires ~14 attempts across all 5 levels with Solar Blessing and Book of Coordination active. Base success rates range from 30% at +15→16 to 10% at +19→20. Without enhancement materials, expected attempts nearly double to 27, significantly increasing total cost.
Formula Recap: Expected Attempts & Artisan Energy
Expected attempts = min(1 / success_rate, 100 / artisan_energy_per_fail). For example, at 10% success rate with 46.5% artisan energy per fail, geometric distribution predicts 10 attempts, but artisan energy caps this at 3 attempts (100 / 46.5 = 2.15 fails max, so guaranteed success by attempt 3). See geometric distribution and artisan energy for details.
Related Concepts
- Expected Value (EV) — understanding statistical averages vs individual outcomes
- Variance — why individual honing experiences differ from averages
Honing Success Rate Math — Probability & Artisan Energy System
Lost Ark's honing system uses fixed base success rate tables that vary by gear tier and enhancement level. T3 gear at +6 to +10 has 30-60% base success rates, while +15 to +20 drops to 10-30%. Each failed attempt increases artisan energy by a level-specific percentage (11.5% at low levels, 46.5% at high levels), guaranteeing success once the bar reaches 100%. This creates a probabilistic progression system with a safety net against catastrophic bad luck.
Base Success Rates by Tier & Level
Different gear tiers have different success rate tables. T3 1302-1370 gear has relatively generous rates (30% at +15). T3 1390+ relic gear (from Valtan, Vykas, Brelshaza raids) extends to +25 with success rates as low as 3-5% at the highest levels. Our calculator uses verified tables from official patch notes and extensive player testing across thousands of honing attempts.
Enhancement Materials: Solar Blessing & Book of Coordination
Solar Blessing increases success rate by +10% additively (e.g., 10% base becomes 20%). Book of Coordination (obtained through events) also provides +10%. These stack, so using both transforms a 10% base rate into 30%, reducing expected attempts from 10 to 3.33. Solar Protection prevents gear downgrade on failure (critical for ancient gear). The calculator lets you toggle these on/off to see cost-benefit analysis. Generally, Solar Blessing is cost-effective when base success rate is below 40%.
Artisan Energy: The Anti-Bad-Luck Safety Net
Artisan energy prevents extreme outliers. At low success rates (5-10%), pure RNG could theoretically require 50+ attempts. Artisan energy increases by a fixed percentage per failure: 11.5% at low levels (requiring ~9 fails for guaranteed success), 21.5% at mid levels (~5 fails), and 46.5% at high levels (~3 fails). This means even at 3% success rate, you're guaranteed success within 3 attempts due to the artisan energy cap. Our calculator models this cap using min(geometric_expected, artisan_cap).
Worked Example: +19 to +20 Weapon (10% Base Rate)
Without enhancements: 10% success rate → 10 expected attempts (geometric). With Solar Blessing + Book: 30% success rate → 3.33 expected attempts. Artisan energy at 46.5% per fail caps max attempts at 3. Cost per attempt: ~2,600 gold (materials + honing fee). Expected total: 3.33 × 2,600 = 8,658 gold with enhancements vs 10 × 2,600 = 26,000 gold without. The 17,342 gold savings far exceeds the cost of Solar Blessing (15g per use × 3.33 = 50g).
Statistical Distribution: Geometric vs Artisan-Capped
Pure geometric distribution (memoryless): P(success on attempt k) = (1-p)^(k-1) × p. With artisan energy cap: P(success) becomes 1.0 at the cap. This creates a truncated geometric distribution. Variance is lower than pure geometric, reducing the frequency of extreme outliers but maintaining most of the RNG excitement. See geometric distribution for mathematical details.
Further Reading
Material Costs & Gold Optimization — Weapon vs Armor Strategy
Material costs scale exponentially with enhancement level. +6 to +10 requires dozens of destruction/guardian stones and a handful of leapstones. +15 to +20 demands hundreds of stones and 10-14 leapstones per attempt. Leapstones are typically the most expensive component at 50-100 gold each on the auction house. Weapons cost ~3x more materials than individual armor pieces but contribute the same item level per upgrade (5/6 item level per enhancement).
Weapon vs Armor Honing Priority
Strategic players prioritize armor upgrades to reach item level thresholds (1415 for Valtan, 1430 for Vykas Hard, 1445 for Brelshaza) cost-efficiently. For 1415, the optimal strategy is typically +17 on all 5 armor pieces and +11-13 on weapon. This costs ~60,000 gold vs ~90,000 gold for balanced +14 across all slots. Only push weapon higher after armor is maxed, or if you need the damage boost for timed content like Guardian Raids or Abyssal Dungeons.
Market Price Volatility & Material Stockpiling
Tradeable material prices fluctuate weekly based on game updates, bot waves, and new content releases. Leapstone prices can swing from 40g to 80g. A 20g price change affects +15→20 total cost by ~3,600 gold (180 leapstones × 20g). Smart players monitor auction house trends and stockpile materials during low-price weeks. Use tools like Lost Ark Market Online to track price history and identify buying opportunities. Update calculator material prices to match current market for accurate projections.
Pre-Farming Strategy & Material Requirements
Running out of materials mid-honing push is frustrating—your gold and materials are sunk with no item level gain until you farm more. Use our calculator to determine total material requirements before starting. For example, +15 to +20 weapon requires ~2,200 destruction stones, ~180 leapstones, ~400 fusion materials, and ~4,000 shards. Pre-farm these through daily chaos dungeons, guardian raids, weekly abyssal dungeons, and auction house purchases. Maintain a 10-20% buffer for bad RNG.
Material Farming Efficiency: Daily & Weekly Activities
Daily chaos dungeons provide destruction/guardian stones and leapstones (10-15 greater leapstones per character). Guardian raids give additional leapstones. Weekly abyssal dungeons drop gold and tradeable materials. Infinite chaos dungeon farming generates shards for purchasing stones from the shard exchange vendor. Una's daily tasks reward leapstones. For fastest progression, run these activities on multiple characters (alts) to funnel materials to your main character.
Cost-Benefit Analysis: Enhancement Material Usage
Solar Blessing costs 15-20 gold per use (market dependent). At 60% base success rate, blessing increases rate to 70%, saving 0.24 attempts. If per-attempt material cost is under 62.5 gold, you lose gold by using blessing. At 30% base rate, blessing saves 0.83 attempts—almost always profitable. At 10% base rate, blessing saves 2.22 attempts—massive savings. Use the calculator's enhancement material toggles to identify the cost-effectiveness threshold for your configuration. Generally, save blessings for +16 and higher.
Optimization Resources
- Honing Calculator — model different upgrade paths
- Material Farming Guide — daily/weekly routines
Data Sources, Assumptions & Methodology
Our calculator uses official success rate tables from Lost Ark patch notes and game client data files, verified through extensive community testing. Material cost data is extracted from in-game tooltips and cross-referenced with player submissions. Market prices are sourced from auction house APIs and community price tracking tools. All assumptions are documented in the calculator's methodology section and updated when game balance changes occur.
Success Rate Tables & Verification
Base success rates are extracted from official game files and verified through player testing samples of 10,000+ attempts per level. The community has extensively validated these tables across multiple servers and gear tiers. Any discrepancies between our tables and in-game experience are investigated and corrected with supporting evidence.
Material Price Sources & Updates
Default material prices in the calculator represent recent market averages across major servers (NAE, NAW, EUC, EUW). Prices are reviewed weekly and updated when significant market shifts occur (typically after major patches or events). For accurate projections, always input your server's current auction house prices using the material cost inputs.
Expected Value vs Individual Variance
The calculator shows expected values (statistical averages across many attempts). Individual results vary significantly due to RNG. You might spend 50% more or less than calculated. This is normal variance in probabilistic systems. Maintain a 20-30% gold buffer when planning honing pushes to account for potential bad RNG. For longer upgrade sequences (e.g., +0 to +20), variance as a percentage of total cost decreases, making expected values more reliable for planning.
Known Limitations & Caveats
- Material prices fluctuate weekly—calculator defaults may not match your server's current prices
- Individual RNG variance means actual costs can differ significantly from expected values in short sequences
- Calculator assumes artisan energy starts at 0% for each level (adjust expectations if mid-progress)
- Event bonuses or honing rate buffs are not included—manually adjust success rates if active
Feedback & Data Contributions
Spotted incorrect data? Have price updates or new success rate observations? We welcome community contributions. Submit data via our Contact page with supporting evidence (screenshots, sample sizes, server/date information). Significant contributions are credited in calculator changelogs.