Genshin Impact Wish Pity System Guide 2025 – Soft Pity, Rates & Primogem Cost

The Three Banner Types: Rates, Pity & Mechanics

Character Event Wish: The 50/50 System Explained

Character Event Wish banners use a two-stage guarantee system colloquially known as "50/50." When you pull a 5-star character, you have a 50% probability of receiving the featured character and 50% probability of receiving one of seven standard banner 5-stars (Diluc, Jean, Mona, Qiqi, Keqing, Tighnari, Dehya). If you lose the 50/50 (receive a standard 5-star), your next 5-star pull on any Character Event Wish banner is guaranteed to be the featured character. This guarantee persists across banner rotations indefinitely until consumed.

Expected Wishes for Featured 5-Star Character

Weapon Event Wish: Epitomized Path Mechanics

Weapon banners feature two rate-up 5-star weapons and use the Epitomized Path system. Before wishing, you select one of the two featured weapons as your "charted course." Each time you pull a 5-star weapon that is NOT your chosen weapon, you gain one fate point. At two fate points, your next 5-star weapon is guaranteed to be your chosen weapon. Fate points reset when the banner changes, making weapon banner significantly less reliable for players who can't commit 240 wishes (worst-case guarantee with two off-banner 5-stars).

Soft Pity vs Hard Pity: The Probability Curve

Probability curve showing base rate (0.6%) until wish 73, then exponential increase during soft pity (wish 74-89), and hard pity guarantee at wish 90

Soft Pity: The Hidden Probability Multiplier

Why Soft Pity Matters for Budgeting

Most players receive their 5-stars between wishes 75-82, not at hard pity (90). The mean 5-star acquisition occurs around wish 63-64 when accounting for both pre-soft-pity pulls and soft pity distribution. This means budgeting for hard pity (90 wishes) provides a significant safety margin—only ~1-2% of pulls reach hard pity. For primogem planning, use 75-80 wishes as your expected cost per 5-star, with 90 as absolute worst-case. See our methodology page for detailed probability derivation.

Weapon Banner Soft Pity: Earlier but Lower Ceiling

Weapon Event Wish has different soft pity parameters: soft pity begins at wish 63 (11 wishes earlier than character banner) with hard pity at 77 wishes. The base rate is slightly higher (0.7% vs 0.6%), and the soft pity increase per wish is steeper. Average 5-star weapon acquisition occurs around wish 50-55, making weapon banner superficially appear more "generous" per 5-star. However, the Epitomized Path guarantee requiring up to 3 fate points (3 × 77 = 231 wishes worst-case) often makes weapon banner more expensive for target acquisition.

4-Star Pity & Consolidation Probability

4-Star Pity Mechanics

Four-star characters and weapons have their own separate pity counter with a 10-wish hard pity guarantee. The base 4-star rate is 5.1% (significantly higher than 5-star), with soft pity beginning around wish 8-9. On character event banners, the first 4-star you pull has a 50% chance to be one of the three featured 4-stars. If you don't receive a featured 4-star, your next 4-star is guaranteed to be featured (4-star consolidation guarantee).

Expected Wishes for Specific 4-Star Character

Assumptions for Probability Calculations

Assumption Limitations & Edge Cases

These assumptions break down in several scenarios: version updates may alter soft pity parameters (though this has never occurred); regional differences could theoretically exist (none documented); and individual player RNG can deviate significantly from expected values in small sample sizes. For methodology details, see our Genshin pity analysis section.

Formula & Pseudocode: Expected Wishes Calculation

Core Probability Formula with Soft Pity

Pseudocode: C6 Character Cost Calculator

function calculateC6Cost(currentPity, hasGuarantee) {
  const BASE_RATE = 0.006  // 0.6%
  const SOFT_PITY_START = 74
  const HARD_PITY = 90
  const COPIES_NEEDED = 7  // C0 + 6 constellations

  let totalWishes = 0
  let guarantee = hasGuarantee
  let copiesObtained = 0

  while (copiesObtained < COPIES_NEEDED) {
    // Simulate wishes until 5-star
    let wishesThisRound = simulate5Star(currentPity)
    totalWishes += wishesThisRound

    // Check if we got featured character
    if (guarantee) {
      copiesObtained++
      guarantee = false
      currentPity = 0
    } else {
      // 50/50 roll
      if (random() < 0.5) {
        copiesObtained++
        currentPity = 0
      } else {
        // Lost 50/50, next is guarantee
        guarantee = true
        currentPity = 0
      }
    }
  }

  return {
    totalWishes: totalWishes,
    primogems: totalWishes * 160,
    usdCost: (totalWishes * 160) / 6480 * 99.99  // Assume top-up efficiency
  }
}

function simulate5Star(startingPity) {
  let pity = startingPity
  let wishes = 0

  while (true) {
    pity++
    wishes++

    let rate = BASE_RATE
    if (pity >= SOFT_PITY_START) {
      rate = BASE_RATE + (pity - SOFT_PITY_START) * 0.06
    }
    if (pity >= HARD_PITY) {
      return wishes  // Guaranteed
    }

    if (random() < rate) {
      return wishes  // Got 5-star
    }
  }
}

Primogem to USD Conversion

Converting wishes to USD cost requires accounting for genesis crystal bonuses and top-up efficiency. The most efficient purchase is the $99.99 pack (6,480 + 6,480 bonus = 12,960 genesis crystals first purchase, 6,480 + 1,600 thereafter). At standard efficiency (6,480 per $99.99):

Worked Example: C6 5-Star Character Budget

Scenario Parameters

Step-by-Step Cost Calculation

Optimization: Starting with Guarantee

If you start with a guarantee (previously lost 50/50), your first copy costs only 63 wishes on average instead of 94.5. This reduces total expected cost to 63 + (6 × 94.5) = 630 wishes (100,800 primogems, $1,556 USD), saving approximately $77 USD. This demonstrates the value of tracking guarantee status and planning major spending when you have guarantee active.

Monthly Primogem Income by Spending Tier

F2P Character Acquisition Timeline

Free-to-play players earning 28-42 wishes per month can expect to guarantee one featured 5-star character every 4.3-6.4 months (180 wishes ÷ 28-42 per month). With average luck (winning some 50/50s), this improves to one featured character every 2.9-4.3 months. This means F2P players should plan character pulls 3-4 patches (18-24 weeks) in advance, saving primogems religiously and only pulling on must-have characters or excellent 4-star lineups.

Welkin + Battle Pass: The Optimal Value Proposition

Welkin Moon ($4.99/month) and Battle Pass ($9.99 per patch, ~$20/month) provide exceptional primogem-per-dollar value. Welkin delivers 3,000 primogems monthly for $4.99 (600 primogems per dollar), compared to the worst top-up option of 60 primogems per dollar (no bonus). Battle Pass adds 680 primogems + 5 Intertwined Fates + 4 Acquaint Fates plus weapon and material rewards. Combined, Welkin + BP costs ~$25/month and increases wish income from 35 to 55 wishes monthly—a 57% increase for just 1.6% of the cost of pure top-ups to achieve similar income.

Banner Selection Strategy & Opportunity Cost

When to Pull vs When to Save

Weapon Banner ROI Analysis

Weapon banner should only be pulled under specific conditions: (1) You already own the target character; (2) Both featured 5-star weapons benefit your account significantly; (3) You can afford 240 wishes for worst-case scenario (2 off-banner pulls, then guarantee via Epitomized Path); (4) The weapon represents a significant damage upgrade (20%+ DPS increase). For most players, pulling additional characters provides more account value than signature weapons. Only whales and players with fully developed rosters should prioritize weapon banner.

Edge Cases: Rare but Important Scenarios

Early Pity Wins: Blessing or Curse?

Dual Banner Periods: Version X.X First Half vs Second Half

When two character banners run simultaneously (during special events or version transitions), they share the same pity counter and guarantee status. Pulling on Banner A advances the same pity as Banner B. This allows flexibility to switch between banners mid-pity if you change your mind, but also means you cannot "build pity" on one while saving the other. Plan carefully when dual banners feature two desirable characters—you likely can only guarantee one unless you have 360+ wishes saved.

Standard Banner Optimization: Acquaint Fates Only

Never spend primogems on Standard Wish banner. The standard banner offers no rate-up characters, no guarantee system (you could pull Qiqi seven times in a row theoretically), and significantly lower expected value per wish. Only use Acquaint Fates (earned through Battle Pass, ascensions, stardust exchange, and events) on standard banner. Spending primogems here is mathematically wasteful compared to saving for event banners with guarantees.

Common Mistakes & Costly Errors