Destiny 2 Raid Exotic Drop Rate Calculator — Vex Mythoclast, Eyes of Tomorrow & Bad Luck Protection

Destiny 2 Exotic Drop Rate Calculator Quick Start — Raid Loot Probability Tracking

Start by selecting your target raid exotic (Vex Mythoclast, Eyes of Tomorrow, One Thousand Voices, Collective Obligation, Touch of Malice, Conditional Finality, or Euphony). Enter your current clear count and target number of future clears to model cumulative probability. Enable triumph boosts if you've completed raid challenges. Choose between weekly mode (3 attempts per week across characters) or farmable mode (unlimited attempts during featured weeks). Results display probability of obtaining at least one drop, expected number of drops, median clears, and 95th percentile benchmarks.

Key Calculator Inputs — Raid Selection & Drop Rate Customization

Primary inputs include raid selection (Last Wish, Deep Stone Crypt, Vault of Glass, Vow of the Disciple, King's Fall, Crota's End, Root of Nightmares, Salvation's Edge), current clear count (tracks bad luck protection progress), target clear count (typically 10-50 clears), calculation mode (weekly vs farmable), triumph boost percentage (0-25%), and character count (1-3 for weekly mode). Advanced users can override default drop rates if using community-sourced data or testing personal drop rate theories. All configurations are shareable via URL parameters for clan coordination and Reddit discussions.

Output Metrics — Probability, Expected Value & Percentile Benchmarks

The calculator displays cumulative probability (chance of getting at least one drop across all attempts), expected drops (statistical average number of exotics), median clears (50th percentile—half of players get it by this point), and 95th percentile (only 5% of players need more clears than this). A clear-by-clear breakdown table shows per-attempt drop rate (accounting for bad luck protection increases), marginal probability (chance of getting it on exactly that clear), and running cumulative probability. This visualization helps identify optimal farming strategies and set realistic expectations for exotic acquisition timelines.

Bad Luck Protection Systems — Last Wish, Deep Stone Crypt & Salvation's Edge

Only specific raids have confirmed bad luck protection. Last Wish (One Thousand Voices) starts at 10% base rate and increases by ~2% per clear, capping at 50% after 20 clears. Deep Stone Crypt (Eyes of Tomorrow) increases from 5% to a guaranteed 100% drop after approximately 20-30 clears. Salvation's Edge (Euphony) has bad luck protection with ~3% per-clear increase. Other raids like Vault of Glass (Vex Mythoclast) and Vow of the Disciple (Collective Obligation) have flat 5% drop rates with no confirmed protection, meaning probability follows pure geometric distribution without safety nets. Our calculator models these differences using raid-specific formulas.

Example Calculation — Vex Mythoclast Drop Probability Over 50 Clears

Vex Mythoclast from Vault of Glass has an estimated 5% drop rate per character per week (no confirmed bad luck protection). Running 3 characters weekly for 10 weeks (30 total attempts) yields: P(at least one) = 1 - (1 - 0.05)^30 = 78.5% cumulative probability. Expected drops = 30 × 0.05 = 1.5 exotics. Median clears ≈ 14 attempts (50% of players get it by attempt 14). 95th percentile ≈ 58 attempts (95% of players get it within 58 attempts). Individual results vary significantly due to RNG—some players get it on clear 1, others not until 80+ clears. Use the calculator to model different scenarios (1 vs 3 characters, weekly vs farmable weeks) to optimize your farming strategy.

Formula Recap — Cumulative Probability & Geometric Distribution

For flat drop rate p across N attempts: P(at least one drop) = 1 - (1 - p)^N. For raids with bad luck protection: calculate per-attempt drop rate p_i (accounting for cumulative increases), then P(at least one) = 1 - ∏(1 - p_i) for i=1 to N. Expected value: E[X] = Σp_i. Median clears: smallest N where cumulative probability ≥ 50%. Our calculator uses these statistical models with raid-specific bad luck protection formulas from community research and official patch note confirmations. See geometric distribution and cumulative probability for mathematical details.

Related Destiny 2 Concepts

• Expected Value (EV) — understanding statistical averages vs individual RNG outcomes
• Variance — why some players get Vex Mythoclast in 3 runs while others take 80+
• Bad Luck Protection — how Bungie prevents catastrophic RNG outliers in specific raids

Raid Exotic Drop Mechanics — Loot Tables, Weekly Lockouts & Farmable Rotation System

Destiny 2 raid exotics drop from final boss encounters with weekly lockout systems and rotating farmable weeks. Standard weekly lockouts allow 3 attempts per week (one per character class: Hunter, Warlock, Titan) with independent RNG rolls per character. Featured raids in the weekly rotation become fully farmable with unlimited boss kills and loot chances, though bad luck protection does not accumulate during farmable farming sessions. Master difficulty raids provide identical exotic drop rates to Normal mode—higher difficulty only affects stat rolls on armor and availability of adept weapons, not exotic probability.

Weekly Lockout System — Multi-Character Farming Strategy

Non-featured raids have weekly lockouts that reset Tuesday at 10 AM PT / 1 PM ET. Each character class (Hunter, Warlock, Titan) can earn raid loot once per week, providing 3 independent exotic drop chances per week if you run all 3 characters. If you have only 1 character, you get 1 attempt per week—acquiring a raid exotic at 5% drop rate takes an average of 20 weeks (~5 months). With 3 characters, average time drops to 6.7 weeks (~1.7 months). This dramatic difference makes multi-character setups the optimal strategy for raid exotic farming. The calculator models both scenarios by adjusting effective weekly attempts.

Featured Farmable Raids — Unlimited Attempts & Drop Rate Mechanics

When a raid enters the weekly featured rotation (typically 2 raids featured per week in Episode 2: Revenant), it becomes fully farmable. You can kill the final boss repeatedly on the same character with each kill providing a loot chance. However, bad luck protection does not accumulate during farmable farming—every kill has the same base drop rate. For raids without bad luck protection (Vex Mythoclast, Collective Obligation), farmable weeks enable rapid farming of dozens or hundreds of attempts in one session. For raids with bad luck protection (Eyes of Tomorrow, One Thousand Voices), farmable weeks are less impactful unless you've already built up protection through weeks of normal clears. The most recent raid (Salvation's Edge as of 2025) cannot be farmed until it enters rotation, typically in the following Episode.

Triumph Boost System — Raid Challenge Completions Increase Drop Rates

Several raids (Root of Nightmares, Salvation's Edge, Vow of the Disciple) feature triumph-based drop rate boosts. Completing specific raid challenges grants permanent account-wide increases to exotic drop rates. Typically 5-7 challenges per raid, each providing a small percentage boost. Exact boost values are undisclosed by Bungie, with community estimates ranging from 1-5% per challenge (5-25% total boost). These boosts apply retroactively if you completed challenges before acquiring the exotic. They stack additively with base drop rates and bad luck protection. For example, if base rate is 5% and you have 15% in triumph boosts, your effective rate is 20% before bad luck protection. Completing all triumphs should be a priority for serious exotic hunters as it provides a permanent, substantial probability increase.

Worked Example — Eyes of Tomorrow with Bad Luck Protection Progression

Eyes of Tomorrow from Deep Stone Crypt has bad luck protection starting at 5% and increasing to guaranteed 100% after ~20-30 clears. Assume 5% per clear increase (community estimate). Clear 1: 5% chance. Clear 2: 10% chance. Clear 10: 50% chance. Clear 20: 100% chance (guaranteed). Cumulative probability after 10 clears: 1 - (0.95 × 0.90 × 0.85 × 0.80 × 0.75 × 0.70 × 0.65 × 0.60 × 0.55 × 0.50) = 99.4%. After 20 clears: 100% (guaranteed). This aggressive bad luck protection ensures even the unluckiest players obtain Eyes of Tomorrow within 20 clears (~7 weeks with 3 characters per week). Compare this to Vex Mythoclast (no protection): 20 attempts at 5% = only 64.2% cumulative probability—over one-third of players still don't have it after 20 attempts.

Statistical Edge Cases — Extreme Outliers & Community Horror Stories

Without bad luck protection, geometric distribution allows extreme outliers. At 5% drop rate, ~0.6% of players need 100+ attempts (>33 weeks with 3 characters). The Destiny community has documented players with 150+ Vex Mythoclast clears without a drop—probability of this: (0.95)^150 = 0.05% (1 in 2,000 players). Bungie added bad luck protection to newer raids (Salvation's Edge, Deep Stone Crypt) specifically to prevent these horror stories. For raids without protection (Vault of Glass, Vow of the Disciple), setting realistic expectations is crucial. Our calculator's 95th percentile metric identifies the "unlucky but not catastrophic" threshold. Use the median (50th percentile) for average expectations and 95th percentile for worst-case reasonable planning.

Farming Strategy Resources

• Destiny 2 Raid Exotic Farming Guide (2025) — weekly vs farmable optimization strategies
• Multi-Character Setup Guide — how to efficiently run 3 characters for maximum exotic chances

Complete Raid Exotic List — Drop Rates, Bad Luck Protection & Quest Exotics

Destiny 2 features 9 raid exotics as of 2025, with varying drop mechanics. RNG-based exotics drop randomly from final boss encounters with weekly lockouts. Quest-based exotics require completing specific in-raid objectives and are guaranteed upon quest completion. Legacy exotics (Anarchy, Tarrabah, Legend of Acrius) from sunset raids are no longer obtainable from raids and must be purchased from the Monument to Lost Lights in the Tower using Ascendant Shards, Enhancement Prisms, and Glimmer.

RNG-Based Raid Exotics — Drop Rate Data & Bad Luck Protection Status

Note: Drop rates are community estimates from player surveys and testing. Bungie has never officially disclosed exact percentages. Bad luck protection status is confirmed through patch notes and official statements where available.

Quest-Based Raid Exotics — Guaranteed Acquisition Paths

Divinity (Garden of Salvation, Trace Rifle): Complete the Divine Fragmentation quest by solving 7 secret puzzles throughout the raid in a single sitting, then defeating the final boss. 100% drop rate upon quest completion. Necrochasm (Crota's End, Auto Rifle): Collect 20 Essence of the Oversoul fragments that randomly drop from Crota kills and raid encounters. Initially had 5-10% Essence drop rate, but was buffed in September 2023 to guarantee 2 Essence per week (defeating Crota + full clear). Potential "jackpot" drop of all 20 Essence from a single Crota kill. These quest exotics require more time investment than RNG exotics but eliminate probability uncertainty.

Legacy Raid Exotics — Monument to Lost Lights Kiosk

Raids from the original Destiny 2 launch and Year 1-2 content were sunset (removed) when Beyond Light launched in 2020. Their raid exotics are now available at the Monument to Lost Lights kiosk in the Tower. Anarchy (formerly Scourge of the Past, Grenade Launcher): 1 Exotic Cipher + 125,000 Glimmer + 200 Spoils of Conquest + 2 Ascendant Shards. Tarrabah (formerly Crown of Sorrow, SMG): Same cost. Legend of Acrius (formerly Leviathan, Shotgun): Same cost. Spoils of Conquest are earned from completing raid encounters (5 per encounter) and can be farmed in any current raid. These exotics are no longer RNG-based and require only currency farming.

Meta Relevance & PvE Usage — Which Raid Exotics Are Worth Farming?

Vex Mythoclast: Top-tier PvE and PvP weapon with linear fusion rifle mode and ramping damage buff. Essential for Overload Champion content when artifact mods allow fusion rifles. Collective Obligation: Niche weapon for Void 3.0 builds, not meta-defining but fun for buildcrafting. Touch of Malice: Required for King's Fall raid challenges, excellent sustained DPS for boss phases. Divinity: Must-have raid support weapon that applies weaken debuff (30% damage increase for all fireteam damage). Used in virtually every endgame PvE activity. Eyes of Tomorrow: Strong add-clear rocket launcher, not meta for boss DPS. Conditional Finality: Strong stasis/solar hybrid shotgun for ability builds. Farm priority: Divinity (guaranteed quest) > Vex Mythoclast (meta dominance) > Touch of Malice (raid utility) > others (collection completion).

Drop Rate Controversies & Community Debates

Vex Mythoclast drop rates sparked massive community controversy when Vault of Glass returned in Season 14 (2021). Players reported 1-5% drop rates with no bad luck protection, leading to hundreds of clears without drops. Bungie never confirmed if bad luck protection exists for Vex. Community surveys on Reddit and Destiny forums show wide variance in reported drop rates (1% to 10%), likely due to small sample sizes and survivor bias (players who get it early stop farming and don't report data). Our calculator uses 5% as the conservative community consensus estimate. For Deep Stone Crypt, Bungie initially had a bug where bad luck protection was per-character instead of account-wide, causing players running 1 character to have much lower protection accumulation. This was patched, but legacy confusion remains. Always verify current game state with recent patch notes and community testing.

Exotic Acquisition Guides

• Divinity Quest Guide (Garden of Salvation Puzzle Solutions)
• Necrochasm Essence of the Oversoul Farming Guide
• Vex Mythoclast Farming Strategy (3 Characters vs Farmable Week)

Data Sources, Methodology & Statistical Assumptions

Our calculator uses community-sourced drop rate data from player surveys, statistical analysis of thousands of raid completions, and official Bungie patch notes confirming bad luck protection systems. Drop rate estimates are conservative consensus values from Reddit, Destiny forums, and community testing projects. All assumptions are documented and updated when new information emerges from patch notes, official statements, or large-scale community data collection efforts. The calculator implements standard probability theory (geometric distribution, cumulative probability) with raid-specific bad luck protection formulas reverse-engineered from community observations.

Drop Rate Data Collection — Community Surveys & Sample Size Limitations

Vex Mythoclast drop rates are estimated from community surveys with 5,000-10,000 player responses on Reddit and Discord. Reported rates range from 1% to 10% with a median around 5%. Sample bias exists: players who get the exotic early often stop responding to surveys, while players with 80+ clears are over-represented in complaint threads. Bad luck protection data for Last Wish and Deep Stone Crypt comes from official Bungie patch notes confirming the systems exist, plus reverse-engineering from player tracking spreadsheets. Exact increment values (e.g., 2% per clear for One Thousand Voices) are community estimates based on observed distributions, not officially confirmed. Our calculator uses conservative middle-ground estimates to avoid overpromising drop rates.

Bad Luck Protection Formula Modeling — Reverse Engineering from Player Data

For Last Wish: Official statements confirm bad luck protection starting at 10% and capping at 50%, with increases per clear. Community testing suggests 2% per clear (reaching cap at 20 clears). Our formula: drop_rate = min(10% + (clears × 2%), 50%). For Deep Stone Crypt: Official statements confirm protection reaching 100% guarantee, but exact formula is unknown. Community observation suggests ~5% per clear increase, reaching 100% around clear 20. Our formula: drop_rate = min(5% + (clears × 5%), 100%). For Salvation's Edge: Bad luck protection confirmed but details sparse. We estimate 5% base + 3% per clear capping at 50%. These formulas match observed community distributions but may not reflect exact Bungie implementation. Use calculator as a probability model, not a precise guarantee.

Statistical Models — Geometric Distribution & Cumulative Probability

For flat drop rate p, probability of first success on attempt k follows geometric distribution: P(X = k) = (1-p)^(k-1) × p. Cumulative probability (at least one success in N attempts): P(X ≤ N) = 1 - (1-p)^N. Expected value (average attempts): E[X] = 1/p. For raids with bad luck protection, each attempt has different rate p_i (accounting for cumulative increases). Cumulative probability: P(at least one) = 1 - ∏(1-p_i) for i=1 to N. Expected value: E[X] = Σp_i. Our calculator computes these iteratively for each clear, displaying clear-by-clear progression in the breakdown table. See geometric distribution glossary entry for full mathematical derivations.

Known Limitations, Assumptions & Caveats

• Drop rates are community estimates, not official Bungie data—actual rates may vary ±2%
• Bad luck protection formulas are reverse-engineered from player observations—exact implementation unknown
• Triumph boost percentages are completely unknown—calculator uses user-configurable estimates (0-25%)
• Farmable week mechanics assume no bad luck protection accumulation (confirmed by community testing)
• Individual RNG results vary significantly from expected values—variance is high for small attempt counts
• Calculator assumes independent RNG per attempt (true random)—no pity timers or streakbreakers confirmed
• Legacy data may be outdated if Bungie adjusted drop rates in recent patches—verify with current player reports

Feedback, Data Contributions & Updates

Found more accurate drop rate data? Noticed calculator predictions don't match your experience? We welcome community contributions. Submit data via our Contact page with supporting evidence: clear count tracking spreadsheets, screenshots of collections badges, sample sizes, date ranges, and character count. Large-scale data contributions (100+ clears tracked) receive credit in calculator changelogs. We monitor Bungie patch notes, TWABs (This Week at Bungie), and community testing threads for drop rate changes and update formulas accordingly.

Methodology & Transparency Resources

• FAQ — calculator accuracy, data sources, and usage questions
• Glossary — definitions for geometric distribution, cumulative probability, bad luck protection
• Destiny 2 Drop Rate Research Methodology — how we estimate drop rates from community data