Destiny 2 Raid Exotic Drop Guide 2025 – Bad Luck Protection & Farming

Base Drop Rate: The 5% Foundation

What Qualifies as a "Looted Clear"?

Checkpoint Farming Does NOT Work

One of the most common misconceptions among new raiders is that you can farm raid exotics by repeatedly clearing just the final encounter using a saved checkpoint. This strategy absolutely does not work in Destiny 2. Bungie's raid exotic system explicitly requires a full raid completion from start to finish for each exotic attempt. Joining a fireteam at the final boss checkpoint, defeating the boss, and opening the chest will NOT award the exotic and will NOT progress your BLP counter.

Raid-Specific Drop Rate Variations

While 5% is the standard base rate for most raid exotics, Bungie has occasionally tuned specific raids to have different base rates or BLP increment values. For example, older raid exotics like Vex Mythoclast from Vault of Glass initially had lower drop rates (around 3-4% base) before being buffed in later patches. Always check current community data sources and patch notes to confirm the active drop rates for your target raid exotic, as Bungie makes periodic adjustments to improve acquisition rates for older content.

Bad Luck Protection (BLP): How It Works

The Cumulative Increase System

BLP Increment Values by Raid

How BLP Counters Track Across Characters

Each of your three characters (Hunter, Titan, Warlock) maintains a completely independent BLP counter for each raid exotic. This system design encourages multi-character farming but also means that progress doesn't transfer. If you complete Vow 20 times on your Hunter and then switch to farming on your Titan, your Titan starts from zero BLP progress—it doesn't inherit or share your Hunter's accumulated bad luck protection.

BLP Reset After Obtaining the Exotic

Once you receive the raid exotic on a character, that character's BLP counter for that specific exotic resets to zero and stops progressing. Your other characters' BLP counters remain unchanged and continue progressing independently. This means if you get Collective Obligation on your Hunter after 12 clears, your Hunter's drop chance returns to the base 5% for any future clears (if attempting duplicates for different rolls), while your Titan and Warlock maintain their current BLP progress.

Weekly Lockouts & Multi-Character Strategy

Understanding Raid Lockouts for Exotic Farming

Destiny 2 raid lockouts work on a per-character, per-week basis for pinnacle rewards and exotic chances. Each character can complete a raid once per weekly reset (Tuesday at 10 AM Pacific) and have a chance at the raid exotic. Additional completions on the same character during the same week will grant normal loot but will NOT award the exotic and will NOT progress BLP. The lockout resets every Tuesday, allowing you to run the raid again on each character for another exotic attempt.

Optimal Three-Character Farming Strategy

Time Investment vs. Reward Optimization

Running three raid clears per week represents a significant time commitment—typically 2-4 hours depending on raid difficulty and fireteam efficiency. However, the probability mathematics strongly favor this approach. With 3% BLP increment, a single character farming for 15 weeks reaches ~50% cumulative probability, while three characters farming for 5 weeks reach ~49% combined probability— achieving the same outcome in one-third the real-world time. Use our Raid Drop Calculator to model your specific scenario.

Fireteam Checkpoint Sharing: What Works and What Doesn't

Understanding Cumulative Drop Probability

Probability Progression Tables

Multi-Character Cumulative Probability

When farming on three characters simultaneously, your weekly cumulative probability compounds significantly. The formula becomes more complex: P(at least one across all characters) = 1 - ∏(1 - p_character_i) for each week. This dramatically improves your odds compared to single-character farming.

Expected Clears to Obtain Exotic

The "expected value" for clears to obtain a raid exotic with BLP is NOT a simple 1/0.05 = 20 clears calculation. Because your drop chance increases with each clear, the median number of clears is typically lower than the naive expectation. With 5% base + 3% BLP, the median clear count is approximately 12-15 clears, meaning 50% of players will have obtained the exotic by their 12th-15th clear. However, variance means some players get it on clear 1 (lucky 5%) while others require 25-30 clears (unlucky ~5%).

Variance, Dry Streaks & Statistical Outliers

Understanding Dry Streaks Through Probability

Probability of Extended Dry Streaks

Psychological Impact of Variance

Understanding probability doesn't eliminate the frustration of unlucky streaks, but it provides perspective. If you're at 18 clears without the exotic, you're in the ~12.5% unlucky group—not an impossible outlier, but also not the median experience. The BLP system guarantees your next few clears have dramatically higher odds (50%+), so persistence is mathematically rewarded. For detailed discussion of variance psychology and how to manage dry streak frustration, see our variance glossary entry.

Master Mode vs Normal Mode: Efficiency Analysis

Do Master Raids Have Better Drop Rates?

Normal Mode Clear Time Advantage

Clears Per Week Comparison

Assuming a 4-hour weekly raid session across three characters, you can achieve approximately:

When Master Mode Makes Sense

Master mode raids are appropriate when you've already obtained the exotic and want to farm for high-stat armor, specific enhanced weapon perks, or the Master mode triumph/seal. For pure exotic farming, always prioritize Normal mode for maximum clears-per-week efficiency. The identical drop rates make Master mode strictly inefficient for exotic acquisition.

Weekly Planning & Time Optimization

Structuring Your Weekly Raid Schedule

Optimal raid exotic farming requires consistent weekly execution. The reset occurs every Tuesday at 10 AM Pacific, giving you seven days to complete three raid runs (one per character) before your exotic chances refresh. Most efficient farmers follow a structured weekly schedule that front-loads raid clears early in the week, leaving weekend time for other activities or additional clears if needed.

Sample Weekly Farming Schedule

Finding Consistent Fireteams

The single biggest time-saving factor in raid exotic farming is having a consistent fireteam or clan that runs the same raid weekly. Experienced teams with established strategies and callouts can complete raids 30-40% faster than LFG groups. Consider joining a raid-focused clan or creating a dedicated farming group that commits to three clears per week. Many Destiny LFG Discord servers have dedicated exotic farming channels where persistent players coordinate weekly schedules.

LFG vs Clan: Time Efficiency Analysis

Raid-Specific Farming Efficiency

Which Raids Are Fastest to Farm?

Not all raid exotics require equal time investment. Some raids are significantly faster to clear than others, making them more efficient for farming even with identical drop rates. When choosing which raid exotic to prioritize, consider both the weapon's value to your playstyle AND the time required per clear attempt.

Prioritizing Multiple Exotic Farms

If you're missing multiple raid exotics and want to optimize your farming schedule, prioritize faster raids first. Completing three Crota's End runs (75-105 minutes total) plus three Root of Nightmares runs (90-120 minutes) gives you six total exotic chances in ~3-4 hours. This same time investment might only yield four clears of King's Fall (200-260 minutes), providing 33% fewer exotic attempts. Focus on fast, efficient raids to maximize your weekly exotic chances within your available time budget.

Assumptions for Raid Exotic Drop Calculations

Critical Assumption Limitations & Edge Cases

These assumptions break down in several scenarios: Bungie may silently adjust drop rates or BLP values in hotfixes without public announcement (rare but documented historically); seasonal events or special raid challenges may temporarily alter drop mechanics; API limitations prevent us from directly confirming individual player BLP counters; extremely unlucky outliers (40+ clears) may have hidden protection systems we cannot measure. Always validate our estimates against current community data and your personal experience. For comprehensive discussion of methodology limitations, see our methodology limitations section.

Formulas & Pseudocode: Probability Calculations

Core Probability Formulas for Raid Exotics

Pseudocode: Raid Exotic Probability Calculator

function calculateRaidExoticProbability(clears, base_rate, blp_increment) {
  cumulative_probability = 0
  probability_of_not_getting = 1.0

  for i = 1 to clears {
    // Calculate drop chance on this clear with BLP
    current_drop_chance = base_rate + ((i - 1) * blp_increment)

    // Cap at 100% (can't exceed certainty)
    if current_drop_chance > 1.0:
      current_drop_chance = 1.0

    // Update cumulative probability
    probability_of_not_getting *= (1 - current_drop_chance)
  }

  cumulative_probability = 1 - probability_of_not_getting
  return cumulative_probability
}

function calculateMultiCharacterProbability(clears_per_character[], base_rate, blp_increment) {
  overall_probability_of_not_getting = 1.0

  for each character in clears_per_character {
    // Calculate cumulative probability for this character
    char_cumulative = calculateRaidExoticProbability(
      character.clears,
      base_rate,
      blp_increment
    )

    // Multiply probability of not getting across all characters
    overall_probability_of_not_getting *= (1 - char_cumulative)
  }

  overall_probability = 1 - overall_probability_of_not_getting
  return overall_probability
}

function findMedianClears(base_rate, blp_increment, target_probability = 0.50) {
  clears = 1

  while true {
    cumulative_prob = calculateRaidExoticProbability(clears, base_rate, blp_increment)

    if cumulative_prob >= target_probability:
      return clears

    clears += 1

    // Safety limit to prevent infinite loop
    if clears > 100:
      return -1  // Error: couldn't find median within reasonable range
  }
}

function simulateDryStreakProbability(max_streak_length, base_rate, blp_increment) {
  prob_of_reaching_streak = 1.0

  for i = 1 to max_streak_length {
    current_drop_chance = base_rate + ((i - 1) * blp_increment)
    current_drop_chance = min(current_drop_chance, 1.0)

    // Probability of NOT getting it on this clear
    prob_of_reaching_streak *= (1 - current_drop_chance)
  }

  return prob_of_reaching_streak
}

BLP Progression Formula Explanation

The Bad Luck Protection system uses a simple linear increment model: each unsuccessful clear adds a fixed percentage to your next clear's drop chance. Mathematically, this creates a step function where your drop probability increases predictably:

This linear progression ensures predictable improvement and guarantees eventual acquisition, unlike exponential or logarithmic models which could create diminishing returns. With a 5% base and 3% BLP, you reach 50% drop chance at clear 15, 80% at clear 25, and near-certainty by clear 30-35.

Worked Example: Complete Probability Analysis

Scenario: Hunter Farming Collective Obligation

Step-by-Step Calculation

Multi-Character Extension of This Example

If this player also has a Titan with 8 clears and a Warlock with 5 clears (both without the exotic), we can calculate the probability of getting Collective Obligation on at least one character in the next week (one clear per character):

Edge Cases & Special Scenarios

Checkpoint Farming Attempts (Why They Fail)

Cross-Class Farming & Alt Character Swapping

Edge Case: Can I start a raid on my Hunter, complete 3 encounters, swap to my Titan, complete the remaining encounters on Titan, and have it count for my Titan's BLP?

Result: No. The raid completion tracking is per-character for the entire raid. If you swap characters mid-raid, only the character that completes the final encounter gets credit for loot and exotic eligibility, but that character must have completed all prior encounters on that same character for BLP progression. Swapping mid-raid does not advance BLP and is not an efficient farming strategy.

Master Mode Challenges & Difficulty Modifiers

Edge Case: If I complete a Master mode raid with all challenge triumphs active, do I get increased exotic drop rates?

Result: No. Challenge triumphs and Master difficulty do not increase raid exotic drop rates. These modifiers provide additional rewards (emblems, shaders, high-stat armor) but have no impact on exotic acquisition. The drop rate and BLP system are identical across Normal mode, Master mode, and any challenge configurations.

Weekly Reset Timing & Partial Progress

Edge Case: If I start a raid 30 minutes before weekly reset and complete it 30 minutes after reset (spanning the reset time), which week does it count for?

Result: The raid completion counts for the week in which the final boss is defeated. If you kill the boss after reset, it counts for the new week. However, this is risky because if your fireteam had already completed the raid that week before reset, they may not get pinnacle rewards (though exotic eligibility should still work). Always complete raids well before reset to avoid edge case bugs.

Common Mistakes & How to Avoid Them

Psychological Pitfalls: Variance & Motivation

Raid exotic farming is a marathon, not a sprint. Going 15-20 clears without the exotic is statistically normal (~25% of players experience this) but feels incredibly discouraging. Many players quit farming right when their BLP has reached the highest values (40-50% per-clear chance), missing out on near-guaranteed drops. Trust the mathematics—if you're at 18 clears, your next 5 clears have a combined ~95% cumulative probability. Persistence through variance is what separates successful exotic farmers from players who give up early. For detailed discussion of variance psychology and dry streak management, see our variance glossary entry.