What is sourced—and what is not
The publisher-provided Steam listing frames each raid around the risk of gaining loot and then successfully extracting with it. It does not supply a general numeric table that LootCalc can safely reuse for targets, locations, containers, bosses, rooms, or player routes. The tools therefore use the official page only for qualitative context and never derive a probability from it.
Minimum evidence for a useful scenario
- Define exactly what counts as an eligible raid and a target find.
- Record game mode, route, target, date, game state, and any exclusions.
- Attach a public source or label the probability as your own observation or what-if assumption.
- Estimate extraction after the target is found, not an unrelated overall survival rate.
- Measure the complete repeatable cycle and use the same boundary for every route.
- Keep target-only value separate from total raid economics.
Why no route can be called universally best here
A route comparison is conditional on the target definition, find estimate, extraction estimate, build, risk tolerance, cycle time, price snapshot, cost rule, and observation date. Two players can reasonably get different results because their inputs describe different situations. A useful calculator exposes those differences; it does not hide them behind a map name or a claim of universal profitability.
Use threshold probability with the expected value
Expected raids answer a long-run average question. Thresholds answer a planning-risk question: the number of independent eligible raids needed to reach a stated cumulative probability under the input assumptions. Neither predicts the next outcome. Save the scenario URL with its evidence note so a future comparison can distinguish a changed input from a changed formula.
What changed in this correction
Earlier versions mixed patch-specific-looking labels with untraceable spawn percentages, sample counts, route values, and update promises. Those claims have been removed. The retained tool is narrower, but every result now follows from visible inputs and documented generic probability math.